A Super El Niño described by forecasters as “off the charts” is expected to peak this winter, bringing milder weather to New York City even as it threatens heavier storms, flooding and snow to other parts of the country.
The weather pattern, measured by sea surface temperatures, could reach more than six times the strength of a typical El Niño between November and January, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
“This is literally off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades,” said Celeste Saulo, secretary of the WMO.
For New Yorkers, that could mean an extended autumn stretching into January, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Matt Benz.
“Fall will linger longer this year,” Benz said. “We expect winter to arrive later.” He added that “in the middle to end of January, we will start to get taste of winter in the Tri-State area.”
Snowfall totals in the city are expected to drop sharply as a result. Last winter brought 43 inches of snow to New York City; this year, Benz projects only 10 to 20 inches. Much of the rest of the Northeastern US is also expected to see a milder winter because of the pattern.
Trouble Elsewhere
The outlook is less favorable for the Western US. Benz said Northern California could face frequent storms bringing rain, wind and coastal erosion, while California and the desert Southwest face the highest risk of flooding nationwide.
The Northern Gulf Coast and other parts of the Southern US are expected to see more “heavy rain events,” Benz said. Meanwhile, the Rockies, the Sierra Nevadas and parts of the Midwestern plains are likely to get heavier snowfall than usual.
“El Nino is a term that gets thrown around every year — but in this case, it could be one of the strongest on record,” Benz said.
The scale of the event has drawn warnings beyond domestic forecasting circles. Tom Fletcher, the United Nations’ emergency relief chief, called the phenomenon “a wrecking ball” capable of fueling extreme heat, droughts and floods around the world.
“This El Niño is a behemoth,” Fletcher said.
