Renowned pollster Nate Silver from FiveThirtyEight raised a troubling question for Democrats on Monday, following a significant setback for President Joe Biden’s re-election prospects.
The president’s approval rating has hit an all-time low, standing at just 37.6 percent according to FiveThirtyEight’s average of national polls.
But Biden just hit a new all-time low in approval (37.4%) at 538 yesterday. Dropping out would be a big risk. But there's some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk. Are we there yet? I don't know. But it's more than fair to ask. pic.twitter.com/1nmoKQkW85
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 10, 2024
“… Biden just hit a new all-time low in approval (37.4%) at 538 yesterday. Dropping out would be a big risk. But there’s some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk. Are we there yet?” Silver wrote.
“I don’t know. But it’s more than fair to ask.”
Nate Silver highlighted a potentially significant shift in the political landscape, suggesting that if current projections hold, former President Donald Trump, the expected Republican nominee, could outpace the incumbent Democrat by seven points.
This projection comes amidst a backdrop of evolving voter sentiments and emerging trends that may reshape the electoral dynamics leading up to the upcoming election.
Drawing on data from FiveThirtyEight, Trump’s current approval rating registers at 41.6 percent, reflecting a key metric in assessing his standing with the electorate.
Meanwhile, recent reports from NPR have underscored a notable development that could influence the electoral landscape: a perceived erosion of one of Joe Biden’s core support bases—young voters.
In the 2020 election, Biden had enjoyed a substantial advantage among this demographic group; however, indications now point to a potential weakening of this once robust support.
Citing data from 2020 exit polls, NPR highlighted Biden’s commanding lead among voters aged 18-29 and those under 45, with margins exceeding 20 points and 14 points respectively. Yet, as of May this year, these significant leads have shrunk considerably.
Notably, Biden’s previous 14-point advantage among voters under 45 has dwindled to just four points. Furthermore, his lead over Gen-Z and Millennial voters has also narrowed to a mere six points.
However, these developments take on added complexity when factoring in independent and third-party candidates.
Trump emerges as the frontrunner among Gen-Z/Millennial voters by six points and holds an eight-point lead over those under 45.
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1 Comment
joey and his administration are by far, the worst president and administration in the history of the USA. Every aspect his presidency is a disaster and a pillar of deliberate destruction of the United States.