A new Harvard Harris Poll shows the generic congressional ballot locked in a virtual tie just over a month before November’s midterm election, with voters split evenly between the two major parties.
Among all registered voters surveyed, Democrats and Republicans are tied at 50-50 when respondents were asked which party’s congressional candidate they would be more likely to support. Among likely voters, Democrats hold a narrow 51-49 percent edge.
Half of all voters say they have already made up their minds about how they’ll vote, and two-thirds say they expect to vote a straight-party ticket. Fifty-nine percent of Democratic supporters and 58 percent of Republican supporters say their decision is final. Independent-leaning voters are far less settled, with only 33 percent saying they’ve decided, 26 percent leaning one way, and 24 percent still undecided.
Voters on both sides also reported similar levels of enthusiasm about the election itself: 63 percent of Democrats and 62 percent of Republicans said voting this November is “extremely important.”
Economy Remains Top Concern
Inflation and affordability remain the dominant issue for voters, with 45 percent naming it the most important issue to them personally. “Restoring basic American values of merit and competence” and crime followed. When voters were asked about the most pressing issues facing the country as a whole, economic concerns again topped the list, followed by health care and immigration.
On the economy specifically, President Trump and Republicans held a narrow advantage in voter trust. Fifty-one percent of all voters said they trust the president more to handle the economy, including 15 percent of Democrats. Independents, however, favored Democrats on the economy by a 54-46 percent margin.
Voters Back Lower Taxes, Spending Cuts
The poll also found broad voter support for conservative fiscal policy. Fifty-eight percent of voters said they want taxes decreased, compared to 15 percent who want them increased and 27 percent who want them kept the same. On government spending, 64 percent favored cuts, 16 percent favored increases, and 19 percent wanted spending held steady.
A majority of voters, 56 percent, also said they would like to see interest rates cut, while 18 percent favored raising them and 26 percent wanted rates left unchanged.
The survey also tested President Trump’s proposal to send $5,000 to every American adult if Republicans retain control of both the House and Senate. That idea drew 57 percent approval overall, though 69 percent of voters said they view it mainly as an effort to boost Republican turnout rather than as policy on its own merits.
