A new Fox News poll released Wednesday shows the Texas Senate race locked in a flat tie, with Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico each drawing 49% support among likely voters in the contest to replace retiring Sen. John Cornyn.
The race has tightened since last month, when Talarico held a narrow 51%-49% edge. Pollsters attribute the shift to Paxton consolidating support among conservatives, rural voters, suburban women, and voters who had backed Cornyn during the GOP primary, which Paxton won with President Trump’s endorsement.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in more than three decades, and Republicans still hold a modest overall advantage on the generic question of Senate control, favored by Texans 51% to 47%, up from a 1-point edge in September. But the tied head-to-head numbers suggest the individual matchup between Paxton and Talarico remains genuinely competitive.
Who’s Backing Whom
Talarico holds commanding leads among Black voters (+65 points), urban voters (+29), voters under 30 (+28), and college-educated women (+23). Paxton’s strongest support comes from White evangelical Christians (+52), White men without a college degree (+32), rural voters (+21), and voters 65 and older (+18).
One of the more striking findings involves Hispanic voters, who are swinging back toward Democrats. After backing Joe Biden by 25 points in 2020 and narrowly favoring Trump by 1 point in 2024, Hispanic voters now favor Talarico by 30 points, 64% to 34%, and prefer Democratic control of the Senate by 29 points.
Party loyalty is also lopsided in an important way: 98% of Democrats back Talarico, compared with 90% of Republicans backing Paxton. Nearly three in ten non-MAGA Republicans say they’re crossing over to support Talarico.
Favorability and Enthusiasm
Talarico’s favorability rating is barely positive, at 49% favorable to 48% unfavorable. Paxton’s numbers are considerably worse, underwater by 17 points at 41% favorable to 58% unfavorable. Among voters who view both candidates unfavorably, Paxton leads by 50 points.
Concerns run in both directions: 53% of voters worry Talarico’s positions are too liberal, while 50% are concerned that Paxton is too closely aligned with Trump. The intensity of those worries is nearly identical, with 36% extremely concerned about Talarico and 37% extremely concerned about Paxton.
Democrats currently hold an enthusiasm edge, with 69% saying they’re extremely interested in this year’s election compared with 61% of Republicans. Voters who are extremely interested favor Talarico by 7 points.
