Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters says he expects Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton to defeat Democrat James Talarico in the state’s U.S. Senate race, despite polling showing the contest within the margin of error.
Gruters made the prediction in an interview with Breitbart News Editor-in-Chief Alex Marlow at the 2026 Republican Jewish Coalition National Leadership Summit on Aug. 31, discussing a contest that has drawn national attention since Paxton unseated longtime incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary by double digits.
“I think we’re within the margin of error, but I think Texas is a ruby-red state. I think Paxton wins, and he’s won statewide three times [and] just took out a popular incumbent,” Gruters said.
The race has been rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report, and Real Clear Polling’s average shows Talarico with a narrow lead over Paxton — a margin within typical polling error.
Gruters argued that lingering divisions from the primary fight against Cornyn will not stop Republicans from uniting behind Paxton in the general election.
“Listen, when you go through a race where you have to punch somebody in the face, yes, there’s hurt feelings and Cornyn had a lot of friends,” Gruters said. “But at the end of the day, the Republicans will coalesce behind Paxton. They will vote for common sense and reasonableness, and they’ll reject ‘Talafreako.'”
“Talafreako” is the nickname President Donald Trump has used for Talarico. Gruters used the same term repeatedly in the interview.
Gruters contrasted Talarico with other Democrats he considers more electable statewide, suggesting the party might have fared better with a different nominee.
“Again, this is a case where if the Democrats maybe put up even a guy like Beto [O’Rourke], maybe they’d have a chance. But ‘Talafreako’ is so out there and so crazy, and his positions on Christianity, on God himself being [non]binary, and then six genders, and wanting to mutilate little kids, boys in girls’ bathrooms, all these things for ruby red Texas — I don’t think so,” he said.
Gruters said he expects the final margin to favor Paxton comfortably rather than come down to a point or two.
“I think Paxton wins, and at the end of the day, I don’t think that’s within a point or two,” he said.
