US officials now believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 has become increasingly unlikely, even though President Xi Jinping has told the People’s Liberation Army to be ready to take the democratically governed island by force by 2027 if necessary. The assessment, previously unreported, marks a significant shift from the longstanding view that Xi wanted his forces primed to act in that year, the centenary of the PLA’s founding.
Two current US officials, one former US official and a person familiar with the matter say the delay stems from two main factors: military readiness problems caused by the Chinese Communist Party’s ongoing anti-corruption campaign, and Beijing’s interest in waiting to see the outcome of Taiwan’s 2028 election.
Some Chinese officials hope that election could bring to power a government more open to unification with the mainland. But if Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party wins a fourth straight term — particularly if President Lai Ching-te is reelected — Beijing may be more inclined toward force in 2028 and beyond, the sources said.
“If that happens, I think 2028 becomes pretty sporty,” one of the US officials said.
Lai and the DPP have built their political identity around Taiwan’s separateness from China, a stance that routinely provokes Beijing, which claims the island as its own territory. Taiwan rejects that claim and insists its people alone will decide its future.
China has never publicly confirmed a 2027 readiness deadline, and analysts have long described the benchmark as a measure of military preparedness rather than a planned invasion date. Still, it has driven a sense of urgency in Washington across several administrations as they work to counter Chinese power in the Asia-Pacific.
The US intelligence community signaled similar caution in its annual threat assessment in March, concluding China did not, at that time, have a plan to invade Taiwan next year and still preferred to gain control without military force if it could.
Corruption Purges Have Slowed the Military
Since taking power in 2012, Xi has run a sweeping anti-corruption and discipline campaign that has investigated millions of Chinese officials and purged numerous senior party, government and military figures. The People’s Liberation Army has increasingly been swept up in the effort — the Central Military Commission, once seven members strong, now has only two active officials besides Xi, who chairs it.
That turmoil appears to have cost the PLA ground. A US official said China’s military exercises last year were smaller and less aggressive than in previous years, and while they rebounded somewhat this year, Chinese commanders remain dissatisfied with their own readiness.
The official said Beijing appears to have drawn lessons from the wars in Ukraine and Iran — chiefly, the need to move fast once an invasion begins and avoid a drawn-out conflict.
“There are way too many pieces that aren’t quite in place yet for what would be the most difficult military operation any military has attempted probably since the Allied invasion of Normandy,” the official said.
Washington’s Election, and Trump’s Role
The United States remains Taiwan’s most important international backer and arms supplier despite having no formal diplomatic relations with Taipei. Officials differ on how much weight Beijing will give to the 2028 US presidential election when weighing its options. Three of the people familiar with the matter said China may watch the US race closely, especially given growing American wariness of overseas military commitments. But the first US official said Beijing views Republicans and Democrats as broadly aligned on Taiwan policy, making the US vote less decisive than it might once have been.
“It doesn’t become as decisive a factor in my opinion, as it might have been 15 years ago,” the official said.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly downplayed the odds of a Chinese invasion during his time in office, saying last year that Xi personally told him China would not invade while Trump was president. After hosting Xi in Washington last week, Trump offered only brief remarks on the subject, saying Taiwan came up in their conversation and that Xi understood his position.
Beijing calls Taiwan its most important issue of sovereignty and territorial integrity and has pressed Washington to halt arms sales to the island. Trump has held off approving a new $14 billion arms package since his May trip to Beijing, calling it a “negotiating chip.” For years, US strategy has centered on arming Taiwan heavily enough that it could hold off a Chinese assault long enough for American and allied forces to intervene.
Xi has not abandoned his goal of having the PLA capable of seizing Taiwan by force by next year, officials say — but the gap between that ambition and the military’s actual readiness appears wider than previously thought.
