US and South Korean officials now see little chance that President Donald Trump will meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un before the end of the year, according to five people with knowledge of the matter, four of whom were briefed by senior US and South Korean officials and one of whom is a South Korean official.
Washington has received no response from Pyongyang on arranging a Trump-Kim meeting, and officials say there is now little time before a regional summit in China next month where such a meeting might have taken place.
North Korean state media has indicated Pyongyang would attach tough conditions to any bilateral summit, potentially including relief from sanctions, even as Kim’s sister has described the relationship between the two leaders as “excellent.”
In August, Trump said he planned to meet Kim before year’s end and claimed the North Korean leader had responded to his outreach. South Korea’s intelligence agency told lawmakers late last month that it put the odds at 50% that Trump and Kim would meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, China, set for November 18-19.
But on Monday, Trump played down the prospects of a meeting at either the APEC gathering or a separate regional summit in the Philippines, also in November.
“I get along with him very well, and I’m not sure that anybody’s asking for a meeting,” Trump told reporters at the White House.
A second South Korean official familiar with the matter said Pyongyang has shown no sign it is preparing for talks with Trump. All five sources spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.
South Korea’s ambassador to Washington, Kang Kyung-wha, said last week that no concrete progress had been made toward a summit. South Korea’s foreign ministry and North Korea’s permanent mission to the UN did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
White House: ‘No meetings to announce’
A White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity, pointed to Trump’s record with Kim during his first term.
“President Trump in his first term held three historic summits with North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un that stabilized the Korean Peninsula. US policy on North Korea has not changed. President Trump remains open to talking with Kim Jong Un, without any preconditions. No meetings to announce at this time. The leaders will meet at the appropriate time.”
Last month, a senior US official told reporters that Trump was “ready” to speak with Kim and that “the ball is very much in North Korea’s court.”
Ankit Panda, a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, put the chance of a Trump-Kim meeting at the APEC summit at less than 10%.
“If Trump wants a meeting with Kim, I think the North Koreans are looking for a costly public signal,” Panda said, adding that a recent US decision to scale back joint exercises with South Korea has not been enough to satisfy Pyongyang.
Washington has at times sought China’s help in brokering talks with North Korea, given Beijing’s close ties to Kim. But cordial exchanges between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, expected to continue at APEC, have produced no breakthroughs with Pyongyang.
Context: an unresolved war, a growing arsenal
The two Koreas remain technically at war under the armistice that ended fighting in the 1950-53 Korean War. The United States stations about 28,500 troops and military hardware in South Korea as part of the combined defense against the North, which has continued to pursue nuclear weapons and ballistic-missile development. South Korean officials, citing private research group estimates, say North Korea now possesses between 80 and 120 nuclear warheads.
Trump’s meetings with Kim in 2018 and 2019 were historic as the first encounters between a sitting US president and a North Korean leader, but they produced no concrete agreements.
US Ambassador to South Korea Michelle Steel, speaking Wednesday at an event in Seoul organized by the American Chamber of Commerce in Korea, said any summit would likely be arranged with little advance notice.
“I don’t know when they’re going to meet. If it happens, then it’s going to happen the next day or within a couple of days’ notice,” Steel said.
