The Chicago Bears travel to Green Bay this week to face the Packers in one of the NFL’s oldest and most closely watched rivalries, with the Bears currently favored by 3 points despite starting backup quarterback Tyson Bagent in place of the injured Caleb Williams.
Williams, who suffered a hamstring injury during a recent game against the Vikings, avoided a major injury after an MRI revealed a strain rather than a tear. Still, he remains out, leaving Bagent under center for a third straight game.
Chicago has won its last two games without Williams by leaning heavily on the ground attack. Through four games this season, the Bears have called 159 rushing plays, with roughly 130 of those carries split between Kyle Monangai and D’Andre Swift. Both backs have topped 300 rushing yards and scored three touchdowns apiece, a workload that echoes the backfield rotation head coach Ben Johnson previously used with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in Detroit.
That run-heavy approach could pay off against a Packers defense that has struggled to stop the run this season, ranking among the worst in the league in that category.
Green Bay does hold several advantages of its own. The Packers are playing at home, have the stronger quarterback in Jordan Love, and are looking for payback after Chicago eliminated them from the postseason last year. Love has thrown for 1,041 yards and eight touchdowns this season and is widely seen as the main reason the Packers have managed two wins so far. But Green Bay’s offense has otherwise been one-dimensional, with little running game to speak of, which could make it more predictable for Chicago’s defense to defend.
The Bears’ defense ranks among the top three in the league in passing yards allowed per game, though that mark came against a run of quarterbacks including Carson Wentz, Jalen Hurts, Geno Smith and Bryce Young — not a group known for piling up passing yardage.
With both teams emphasizing ball control, the outcome may hinge on which side protects the football and wins the time-of-possession battle. The Bears have excelled in that regard over their last two games. Even so, oddsmakers and bettors weighing the matchup will have to decide whether Chicago’s backup-quarterback offense can hold up on the road in Green Bay against a Packers team fueled by last season’s playoff loss.
