A new poll out of Iowa shows Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson holding a razor-thin lead over Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek in the race for U.S. Senate, with pollster Quantus Insights describing the contest as “closely divided.”
The survey puts Hinson at 47.1 percent support to Turek’s 45.8 percent, a gap of just 1.3 percentage points. Libertarian candidate Thomas Laehn drew 1.7 percent, while 5.4 percent of voters remain undecided — a bloc large enough to determine the outcome either way.
The margin holds steady under different survey scenarios. When undecided voters who lean toward a candidate are factored in, Hinson’s support rises to 48.5 percent against Turek’s 46.6 percent. When pollsters asked respondents to choose only between the two major-party candidates, Hinson led 48.9 percent to 46.7 percent.
Quantus Insights found that Turek, who has Barack Obama’s backing, leads among independent voters by 17 points, though 9 percent of independents remain undecided. Hinson holds a 10-point advantage among men, while Turek leads by 12 points among women.
Age is also splitting the electorate sharply. Voters aged 18-29 favor Turek by 21 points, and the 30-44 bracket is tied. Hinson leads by eight points among voters 45-68 and by three points among those 65 and older.
“Turek’s strength among women and independents offsets Hinson’s rural advantage, leaving Iowa’s Senate race closely divided,” Quantus Insights concluded.
The poll was conducted September 28–29, 2026 among 714 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
A Second Poll Shows a Wider Gap
The Quantus findings land alongside an Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey released in September that showed Hinson leading Turek by five points, 50 percent to 45 percent, with 5 percent undecided. Emerson noted that Hinson’s support had grown two points over the prior month.
In August, Emerson had Hinson at 48 percent and Turek at 45 percent, with 6 percent undecided — meaning Hinson’s lead in that poll widened from three points to five over the following month.
The RealClearPolling average of polls currently shows Turek ahead by less than half a percentage point, underscoring how tight the race remains depending on which survey is weighted most heavily.
Border Policy a Central Divide
Hinson has made border security a centerpiece of her campaign, calling for strict enforcement of immigration law and the deportation of what she terms “dangerous criminal illegal immigrants.” Turek, meanwhile, has a legislative record of supporting taxpayer-funded welfare benefits for illegal immigrants, even as he has sought to distance himself from that record on the campaign trail.
