A new poll released Tuesday shows Republican Ken Paxton holding a slim lead over Democrat James Talarico in what has become the most expensive Senate contest of the 2026 midterms, with Paxton at 47.2 percent to Talarico’s 46.7 percent.
The Quantus Insights survey attributes Paxton’s narrow edge to Republican strength among older and rural voters, which is offsetting a Democratic advantage among independents. The poll found Talarico leading independents by 15 points, 52 percent to 37 percent, but Paxton continues to gain ground among the Republican voters who make up the bulk of the Texas electorate.
Paxton now holds 87 percent support among GOP voters, up from the low 80s he registered after a bruising primary and runoff against outgoing Sen. John Cornyn, a race in which more than $130 million was spent against the sitting Attorney General.
Age remains a defining factor in the race. Paxton leads voters 65 and older, 56 percent to 39 percent, and edges Talarico among those 45 to 64, 49 percent to 45 percent. Talarico dominates among younger voters, leading 62 percent to 29 percent among those under 30 — but that bloc historically turns out at lower rates in midterm elections than older voters do.
The poll also measured how well each candidate is seen as representing Texas values. Paxton was viewed as a good fit for the state by 48.6 percent of respondents, compared to 45.5 percent for Talarico. Notably, 48.3 percent of respondents said Talarico does not fit with Texas.
Spending in the race has reached extraordinary levels. Axios reported on Oct. 1 that a Texas-focused PAC aligned with the Senate Leadership Fund spent $131 million in September alone, with tens of millions more expected in October. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has reportedly contributed to a broader $276 million effort boosting Republican candidates through various political entities.
Talarico’s campaign has also faced questions over a two-week absence from the trail, which his campaign attributed to the flu. He was not seen publicly during that stretch before resurfacing over the weekend at a concert with country singer Kacey Musgraves.
Texas voters will be able to begin casting ballots in person when early voting opens Monday, October 19.
