Two new polls show Republican Sen. Jon Husted with a narrow lead over Democrat Sherrod Brown in Ohio’s 2026 U.S. Senate race, a reversal from a string of earlier surveys that had Brown ahead.
An ActiVote poll of 400 likely voters, conducted between September 26 and October 18 with a median field date of October 7, put Husted at 50.2 percent to Brown’s 49.8 percent. That 0.4-point gap is well within the poll’s 4.9-point margin of error.
ActiVote’s analysis found the race hinges on voters in the political middle. “The race is decided in the center, where Husted leads by 56% to 44%,” the firm wrote.
According to the poll, Husted holds an edge among rural voters, men, white voters, voters aged 30 to 64, and those with a high school education or less. Brown leads among suburban and urban voters, women, black voters, the youngest and oldest age groups, and college-educated voters. ActiVote cautioned that these subgroup numbers carry a larger margin of error than the overall result, and noted that Ohio does not register voters by party.
A second poll pointed the same way. The account Political Polls shared Rasmussen Reports figures from October 14 showing Husted at 49 percent and Brown at 47 percent among likely voters — a shift the account described as a five-point swing toward the Republican since an earlier survey.
A Reversal From Recent Trends
The new numbers break from a run of polls that had shown Brown with a clear advantage. A CNN survey of likely voters released October 8 had Brown ahead 49 percent to 43 percent. A New York Times/Siena College poll showed him up 49 to 46. A Marist poll gave him an eight-point lead, 51 to 43.
Brown is seeking to reclaim the Senate seat he lost to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) in 2024. Husted, by contrast, has never won the seat in a statewide election — Republican Gov. Mike DeWine appointed him last year after then-Sen. JD Vance left to become vice president.
President Trump, who carried Ohio by roughly 11 points in 2024, has endorsed Husted and campaigned for him this month. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has labeled Brown a “two-time loser,” while Brown’s campaign manager, Patrick Eisenhauer, has called Husted “for sale.”
