The Texas Longhorns travel to Baton Rouge on Saturday night for a game that could all but lock up a College Football Playoff spot, provided they can beat LSU in Death Valley.
Texas’s season has been a study in reversals. After a strong start, the Longhorns dropped back-to-back games to Oklahoma and Florida, a stretch that fueled speculation about friction between head coach Steve Sarkisian and quarterback Arch Manning. Texas has since reeled off convincing wins over Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Missouri, putting the team squarely back in the SEC Championship picture.
LSU arrives off its own jarring result. The Tigers were six-point favorites against Alabama last weekend but lost 31-13. The scoreline overstates the gap, however: LSU outgained the Crimson Tide 457 yards to 285, but went 0-for-4 on fourth down and finished with a minus-two turnover differential, margins that are hard to overcome against a team like Alabama.
LSU’s defense, coordinated by Blake Baker, has cooled somewhat in recent weeks but still ranks No. 9 nationally in SP+ and fifth in yards per play allowed. Despite the loss, the unit held Alabama under 300 yards of total offense.
Texas’s defense has been the stronger story all season, ranking fourth in SP+ and first nationally in yards per play allowed at 4.0.
With coaches Lane Kiffin and Sarkisian, and quarterbacks Manning and Sam Leavitt all on the field, fans may expect a high-scoring shootout. But given what both defenses have shown this year and the stakes involved, bettors are instead eyeing a tighter, lower-scoring contest.
The betting lean for Saturday’s game is the under 45.5 points, priced at -110 on DraftKings.
