Former President Donald Trump has made significant gains over Vice President Kamala Harris, particularly among independent and Latino voters, according to a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll.
The data shows Trump now leads Harris by three points among independents in a multi-candidate race, 49% to 46%. This marks a dramatic shift since August when Trump was trailing Harris by 11 points, with Harris leading 48% to 37%.
One key factor contributing to Trump’s surge is the withdrawal of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from the race. Kennedy, who had previously garnered 12% of the vote, endorsed Trump between the August and September polls, helping to shift momentum.
Additionally, the initial boost Harris received after unexpectedly securing the Democratic nomination appears to have leveled off.
Trump has also made inroads with Latino voters. In August, he led Harris by 15 points among this demographic, with 54% to Harris’s 39%. By September, Trump’s lead had narrowed to just four points, holding 51% of the Latino vote compared to Harris’s 47%.
Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, emphasized the high stakes of the upcoming debate in Philadelphia between the two candidates.
“When Trump and Harris square off, the contest is incredibly close,” Miringoff explained. “There’s a single-digit difference on most key issues. Harris dominates with voters prioritizing honesty, while Trump appeals to those seeking strong leadership. The big question is whether this dynamic will remain after the debate.”
The poll also revealed that 70% of Americans plan to watch the debate, although only 30% of registered voters believe it will impact their decision. Still, 69% of respondents expressed doubt that the debate would have much influence on the outcome.
Nationally, Trump has also closed the gap against Harris, reducing her lead by two points. In the latest poll of registered voters, Harris narrowly leads Trump 49% to 48%. This is a slight improvement for Trump compared to August, when Harris led 48% to 45%.
In contrast, Trump had a slight edge over President Biden, defeating him 43% to 42% in the July survey.
Among voters who are certain to cast their ballots, Harris holds a stronger lead, 51% to 48%. She also maintains a 15-point advantage among women and a 12-point lead among men.
In terms of demographics, Harris enjoys substantial support from Black voters, capturing 74% of the vote compared to Trump’s 24%. However, Trump performs better on key issues like immigration (53%), the Middle East (51%), and the economy (52%). Harris leads on social issues like abortion, where she commands 56% support.
On the favorability front, Harris and Trump are nearly tied. Harris is viewed favorably by 47% of respondents, with 46% holding a negative opinion. Trump’s favorability rating stands at 45%, with 50% viewing him unfavorably.
Regarding policy, 47% of respondents believe Harris is too liberal, while 41% think her views are “about right.” For Trump, 43% see him as too conservative, 43% believe he is “about right,” and 10% consider him too liberal.
In the generic congressional ballot, 46% of voters said they would support the Democratic candidate, while 45% favored the Republican.
During a Fox & Friends interview, Trump criticized the moderators of the first debate, accusing ABC News hosts David Muir and Linsey Davis of bias, alleging they unfairly favored Harris throughout the night.
Additionally, pop star Taylor Swift, who recently described herself as a “childless cat lady,” announced her endorsement shortly after the debate between Trump and Harris.
