The upcoming sentencing in the New York hush money case involving former President Donald Trump could mark the first instance in U.S. history of a former president being incarcerated.
This potential outcome is anticipated to happen next month.
Following a jury’s May verdict of guilty on 34 criminal counts related to manipulating business records to unlawfully sway the 2016 presidential election, there is speculation that the former president may not serve prison time before the 2024 election, accoBig Update On Trump Case Before July 11 Sentencingrding to insights from legal experts shared with ABC News. The sentencing for Trump is scheduled for July 11.
Of the 14 legal professionals and law scholars consulted by ABC News, five expressed an expectation of a prison sentence, while two considered the decision to be on the fence. Seven others did not foresee a prison term due to enforcement challenges, lack of precedent for imprisoning first-time offenders, and potential political ramifications.
It is widely believed that Trump’s sentence will likely be deferred until after the 2024 election or until his appeal is resolved, which could span several months to a year. Consequently, he may not have to commence serving any portion of his sentence before then.
“There is no more serious falsification of business records case that I can remember in the history of supervising and prosecuting many of these cases,” said Karen Friedman Agnifilo, who previously served as the chief assistant district attorney in the Manhattan district attorney’s office.
The United States Sentencing Commission implemented a point system that federal court judges typically rely on to guide their sentencing decisions. Yet in Trump’s case, Judge Merchan has fewer specific guidelines to follow.
As per New York’s penal law, the maximum prison sentence for Class-E felonies is four years.
Furthermore, probation officials will compile a report suggesting a sentence for Trump, which Judge Merchan may consider when evaluating the crime’s nature and taking into account Trump’s personal background and character.
“On behalf of New Yorkers — that’s who Judge Merchan is speaking up for — how big a breach of the social trust was this compared to all the other crimes that he and other judges sentence every day? There is literally no case that has been remotely similar to the criminal prosecution conviction of a former chief executive of the country,” said Justin Levitt, a constitutional law professor at Loyola Law School.
Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan DA, presented a novel legal argument in his case.
He alleged that Trump had falsified business records to cover up a violation of a New York election law that prohibits conspiracies to influence an election through illegal methods.
Several experts interviewed by ABC News expressed doubts about whether Bragg could justify imposing a prison sentence based on individual deterrence – that is, dissuading Trump himself from committing a similar offense in the future.
“It’s not necessarily clear to me that this is a situation that will arise again that could be specifically deterred,” said former federal prosecutor Jarrod Schaeffer. “Looking at Trump’s behavior and his track record, I’m not sure that the judge will hold out hope that his sentence in this case will have a strong deterrent effect on him.”
Judge Merchan has the option to decide whether to impose a period of probation or a conditional discharge on Trump. If Trump is put on probation, he would be required to adhere to specific conditions and report to a probation officer.
This might involve travel restrictions or curfews, which could be enforced using an ankle monitor, as pointed out by former federal prosecutor Michael Zweiback.
However, implementing these conditions during his presidential campaign could pose difficulties, as noted by New York Law School professor Anna Cominsky.
“The more restrictions on someone’s movement sometimes makes it more difficult for them to live their lives and do their jobs,” Cominsky said. “So when it comes to Trump, part of his job is right now campaigning and traveling around the country. He has to be able to do that.”
ABC News reported: “Trump alternatively could be sentenced to a conditional discharge where Judge Merchan himself would oversee that Trump meets the conditions of his release, rather than a probation officer.
The conditions of Trump’s release could include paying a fine, performing community service, and avoiding future arrests.”
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