Importers Frontload Freight as Trump Tariff Threat Looms

With President-elect Donald Trump promising a sweeping series of tariffs—25% on imports from Mexico and Canada and 10% on goods from China—U.S. importers are rushing to stockpile products before the tariffs take effect. The surge in freight frontloading has caused a spike in international cargo flights and increased activity in global supply chains, particularly in China.

Data from China’s Ministry of Transport reveals a dramatic rise in international cargo flights. Last week saw 3,485 such flights, the highest volume since March 2023, when China emerged from prolonged COVID-19 lockdowns. It marked the third consecutive week with over 3,400 flights, underscoring the urgency importers feel as the tariff deadline, less than two months away, approaches.

The anticipated tariffs have U.S. businesses scrambling to avoid potential price increases. According to Barclays analyst Pooja Sriram, the looming 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports and the additional 10% on Chinese goods are accelerating this “pull-forward effect,” where importers rush to stockpile goods before tariffs are implemented.

“The threatened tariffs on Canada and Mexico will motivate U.S. importers to frontload imports and accumulate inventories, regardless of whether the tariffs are implemented,” Sriram noted in a client report.

This surge in imports is expected to continue through late 2024, with a potential economic ripple effect in 2025. “The 25% tariffs could intensify this pull-forward effect, leading to an even stronger surge in imports…thereby widening the trade deficit,” Sriram explained.

Chinese exporters, particularly in sectors like electronics and manufacturing, are seeing a significant uptick in orders from U.S. clients.

Wu Zhiqiang, CEO of Shenzhen Lingke Technology, a lighting products manufacturer, confirmed that major American retailers are dramatically increasing their orders. “The thinking is that American clients want to lock in as many profits as possible before a new round of tariffs kicks in,” Wu said.

Similarly, tech giants such as Microsoft, HP, and Dell are ramping up their supply chains. According to Nikkei Asia, these companies are “scrambling to obtain as many electronic parts as they can before January.”

However, analysts warn that this frontloading trend is unsustainable. “Shipment could be front-loaded, boosting exports in the first half of 2025 before dampening them in the second half,” Barclays wrote in another note, adding that the tariffs could limit China’s economic growth in 2025 to around 4%.

Not all U.S. companies are rushing to act. Mike Beckham, CEO of Simple Modern, a drinkware company based in Oklahoma, acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs but suggested they were not a major driver for every business.

“Some companies are attempting to ship as much as they can right now, but it has not been a major driver of strategy for the companies I am close with,” Beckham noted.

However, logistics companies are seeing short-term benefits from the import surge. Freight forwarders and air cargo carriers are handling increased volumes as importers rush to secure inventory before the tariffs take effect.

Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, noted that while air cargo demand has surged, prices have not yet spiked. “Carriers report being busy but not overwhelmed even as December approaches,” Levine wrote, adding that capacity additions may help prevent extreme rate hikes or congestion through the end of the year.

Trump’s tariff announcement reflects his characteristic hardline trade strategy, reminiscent of his first term. While his earlier tariffs were often framed as negotiating tools, these new measures signal a return to protectionist policies designed to pressure trading partners.

The tariffs on Canada and Mexico are tied to stopping the flow of drugs, particularly fentanyl, and curbing illegal immigration. “Tariffs will remain in place until such time as [the drugs pouring into our country] stop,” Trump declared. Similarly, the 10% tariff on Chinese imports will stay in effect until measures are taken to address the drug crisis and other concerns.

Trump stated that he would “sign all necessary documents” on January 20 to implement the tariffs as one of his “many first Executive Orders.”

Deutsche Bank’s chief FX strategist, George Saravelos, outlined in a report how these tariffs could impact major economies. Among the hardest-hit would be Mexico, Vietnam, and Canada, given their reliance on U.S. trade.

For China, the tariffs add pressure to an already struggling economy. While the current export boom benefits Chinese manufacturers and logistics firms, analysts caution that demand will likely drop sharply once the frontloading wave subsides.

For U.S. consumers, the tariffs could mean higher prices on a wide range of goods, from electronics to food products, exacerbating inflationary pressures.

The race to frontload freight ahead of Trump’s tariff deadline is a vivid reminder of how quickly trade policy can reshape global supply chains. As the January deadline looms, businesses are hedging against uncertainty, boosting short-term demand while potentially setting the stage for slower trade volumes in the months to come.

While the immediate winners may be logistics firms and exporters, the long-term consequences of these tariffs—on trade relationships, economic growth, and consumer prices—remain to be seen. For now, the freight frenzy captures the urgency and unpredictability that Trump’s trade policies have reignited on the global stage.