A new New York Times poll of likely voters in Maine, Michigan and New Hampshire shows Republican U.S. Senator Susan Collins leading Democrat Troy Jackson by three points, 49 to 46 percent, in Maine’s closely watched Senate race.
The poll surveyed 619 likely voters across the three states between September 15 and 22. It marks a shift from a June survey that had Collins trailing Democrat Graham Platner by two points, 49 to 47 percent. Platner exited the race after facing scrutiny over past conduct, and Democrats moved to back Jackson instead.
Collins’ current lead is the second poll in a row to put her ahead. A Quantus Insight poll conducted around the same period showed her up by a single point, 47 to 46 percent.
Collins previously outperformed polling by double digits in her last election, and an incumbent polling near 50 percent is generally considered to be in a strong position heading into the final stretch of a campaign.
Turnout Model Draws Scrutiny
The Times weighted its poll to an electorate in which former Vice President Kamala Harris defeated President Trump by 52 to 41 percent nationally. In Maine, however, Harris’ actual margin over Trump in 2024 was 6.9 points, not 11. Pre-election polling in Maine that year also significantly underestimated Trump’s support, with projected Harris margins ranging from nine to 17 points before the vote.
The same national weighting applied to Michigan implies an even larger shift, since Trump carried that state by 1.4 points in 2024. That would suggest a 5.4-point swing toward Democrats in the coming midterms under the poll’s assumptions.
Michigan and New Hampshire Senate Races
Despite that built-in swing, the Times poll shows Democrat Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed, also known as Abdul El-Sayed, leading Republican rival by only five points in Michigan’s Senate race, 49 to 45 percent. By comparison, the RealClearPolitics polling average currently shows El-Sayed ahead by 2.7 points. Michigan polls in 2024 underestimated Trump’s support by about two points.
In New Hampshire, the same poll has Democrat Chris Pappas leading Republican John Sununu by five points, 50 to 45 percent, in the race for that state’s open Senate seat. Trump lost New Hampshire by 2.8 points in 2024, though some pre-election polling there had him losing by nearly five points.
Pollsters have repeatedly underestimated Republican turnout in recent election cycles, and the modeling assumptions built into current midterm surveys generally presume that a substantial share of 2024 Trump voters will not turn out again this cycle.
