Polling currently shows Democrats with a substantial advantage heading into the 2026 midterms, but pollster Lee Carter argues in a new Fox News opinion piece that the numbers may be measuring dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump rather than genuine enthusiasm for the Democratic Party.
The latest Fox News Power Rankings show Democrats ahead by 11 points among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot. Reuters/Ipsos polling also shows Democrats ahead among registered voters. Trump’s approval rating is weak, voters are unhappy about prices, and Democrats currently hold an enthusiasm edge.
Carter, who writes as a pollster rather than a partisan commentator, says those numbers are real and should be taken seriously by both parties. But she argues they leave open a critical question: are voters rejecting Trump, or actually buying into what Democrats are selling?
Affordability versus healthcare
Carter draws a comparison to 2018, when Democrats rallied around healthcare after Republican efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act. She notes that healthcare was the single issue voters cited most often ahead of that year’s midterms, and that it gave voters a clear, specific reason to show up at the polls.
In 2026, she writes, the equivalent rallying word is
