Progress was made this week in the Senate on a short-term funding plan and the Todd Blanche nomination, but crucial votes remain unresolved and procedural hurdles still stand between agreement and action. Lawmakers cleared committee and procedural steps, yet the final outcomes hinge on a handful of senators and more votes to come.

After months of delay, the Senate finally started moving in earnest toward resolving two big items: a continuing resolution to fund the government and the nominating fight over Todd Blanche. The Judiciary Committee advanced Blanche to the full Senate on a strictly party-line 12-10 vote, marking a meaningful procedural step even as his path to confirmation looks precarious. The chamber also agreed to begin turning House Resolution 6500 into a vehicle for a spending extension through December 11.

“Progress was made – but the deal is far from done.” That line captures the mood on the floor, where senators voted early in the week to invoke debate and then, after the required delay, agreed by voice vote to hollow out HR 6500 and build a continuing resolution into it. The voice vote was not a final adoption of spending language, only a decision to draft the CR and include certain directives, so more votes will be required before money is actually committed.

The Blanche confirmation shows how fragile narrowly divided Senate politics have become. Democrats are united in opposition, Sen. Susan Collins has announced she will vote no after the committee deal that advanced him, and Senate Republican leadership is short of safe votes while Sen. Mitch McConnell remains out for medical reasons. That leaves the nomination hinging on the undecided positions of Sens. Bill Cassidy and Lisa Murkowski, and it’s entirely possible Blanche could lose one or both.

If Cassidy and Murkowski both vote yes, the tally could be 50-49 in Blanche’s favor, assuming no Democrat breaks ranks. If either defects the nomination would likely fail at 49-50. A tie would push the decision to the presiding officer, and the reporting noted that Vice President JD Vance could cast a tiebreaking vote in the extraordinary scenario of a 50-50 split. For context, Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman has publicly declared he will not back Blanche.

The continuing resolution process moved on a separate but parallel track. Earlier in the week the Senate voted 89-4 to invoke cloture on the concept of repurposing a House measure into a CR, but that cloture invocation only set up 30 hours of required debate under Senate rules. Senators then held out their time rather than yield early, which delayed progress and meant the next substantive step was agreement to draft the bill rather than passage of final text.

Crafting the actual CR will be difficult and drawn out. Lawmakers must write the full text, hold another cloture vote that effectively needs 60 votes to limit debate, and then endure more debate and likely dozens of amendment attempts before a final up-or-down on the spending measure. Even if the Senate produces something that clears the chamber, the House will have a short window to reconcile differences before the September deadlines, and leadership will have to manage competing priorities under a tight timetable.

The whole sequence has the feel of a slow-motion build toward a high-stakes finish. Small procedural wins have stacked up: a committee advancement, a broad cloture tally on an idea, and a voice vote to start drafting the CR. Those are not trivial, but they are not final either, and the outcome will depend on who blinks and who holds firm during the remaining votes later this week.

The arithmetic and the personalities matter more than ever. With a slim majority and several swing or absent senators, a single change of mind can flip results on both the Blanche nomination and key votes on government funding. Expect the next set of roll calls to be intense, public, and decisive as senators take the final steps that will determine whether the government stays funded through December 11 and whether Todd Blanche becomes the next attorney general.