A recent NBC News poll shows deep trouble for the two names most often floated for the Democratic 2028 ticket, with clear vote-intention and favorability gaps that make both paths to the White House rocky.

The NBC News survey of 1,000 registered voters puts Gov. Gavin Newsom at 27% favorable and 45% unfavorable, while former Vice President Kamala Harris registers 34% favorable against 51% unfavorable. Those margins are hard to paper over and raise real questions about viability on a national stage. Voters are delivering a blunt verdict that will shape any discussion about the Democratic field.

This is not just a bad headline for two ambitious politicians. It speaks to a deeper problem inside the opposition party: their two leading hopefuls are also the two figures with the highest voter skepticism. When your top names are underwater by double digits, the party faces a choice between loyalty to familiar faces and changing course for electability.

Among Democratic primary voters, Harris retains a favorable edge, with 67% viewing her positively versus 52% for Newsom. That split shows a sentimental attachment inside the party that does not translate to the broader electorate. Favor with the base is not the same thing as being able to carry independent and swing voters in a general election.

The wider tension is familiar: primary voters reward ideological alignment, while the general electorate prioritizes winners. That push-and-pull has shaped candidate decisions before, and it will matter even more in 2028 if Democrats try to pick someone who excites the base at the expense of broader appeal. The risk is choosing a nominee who looks good in a primary but cannot win statewide or national contests.

Harris has not ruled out running again and has dropped a couple of lines that keep the door open. She told podcaster Sharon McMahon in February that she “might” seek the presidency again. In October she told the BBC, “I am not done.”

She added that politics is “in my bones.” For a politician carrying a 51% unfavorable rating among registered voters, those words do more than convey determination. They signal to Democratic strategists that nostalgia and loyalty may be competing with raw electability concerns.

Newsom has been just as careful about committing, framing any bid as a family decision and leaning into a practiced reluctance. When he described a conversation with one of his children he said:

“I said, ‘No, we’ll do [the] decision as a family.’ He goes, ‘You can’t.’ I said, ‘Why?’ He goes, ‘I’m too young. You need to spend more time with us.'”

He followed that story with, “I mean, how do you deal with that one?” The line is the kind politicians use when they want to seem torn between personal life and public ambition, but voters notice when the public figure also has low favorability numbers.

Both names carry the baggage of California, and the state’s problems are now part of their political resumes. The challenges tied to California’s recent trends are visible and often cited by critics and voters alike:

• Population decline driven by cost of living and quality-of-life failures
• A homelessness crisis that defies the billions thrown at it
• An energy grid that struggles to keep the lights on
• A regulatory environment that has chased businesses to Texas, Florida, and Tennessee

Harris’s rise came through roles as California attorney general and senator before she became vice president, and Newsom’s profile was built governing the state as governor. Both have governed from a progressive posture, and neither has a recent track record of governing from the center. That makes a pivot toward the median voter more complicated if their political identities are tightly tied to one side of the party.

The core problem is simple: the combination of base preference and general electorate skepticism creates a mismatch. Democratic primary voters may still like both figures, but general voters already have formed negative impressions. Recovering from 45% and 51% unfavorable ratings requires something beyond repeated messaging from the same ideological playbook.

The poll also reads like a snapshot of a party still processing the last presidential cycle. Harris was the nominee in 2024. She lost. Her numbers have not recovered to where they would need to be to make a clean argument for rerun. That instinct to re-engage familiar names looks more like looking backward than building a new path forward.

Newsom has marketed himself as the future of the party for years, but a 27% favorable rating nationally shows the limits of that appeal. Nearly three-quarters of voters either dislike him or lack a positive impression, which undercuts the idea that he can be the bridge to swing voters or disaffected moderates in key states.

If Democrats do not change course, the choices they make about candidates will define the contest. If either Newsom or Harris ends up as the nominee, Republicans will be able to run against a record rather than a fresh face, and that dynamic will shape how the next presidential contest is framed and fought.