The upcoming sentencing of former President Donald Trump in the New York hush money case may mark the first instance in U.S. history where a former president is imprisoned.
It is anticipated that this could occur as early as next month, following his conviction on 34 criminal counts of falsifying business records to unlawfully impact the 2016 presidential election.
Despite this, analysts informed ABC News that it is unlikely for the former president to serve time before the 2024 election. Trump’s sentencing is scheduled for July 11.
Five out of the 14 lawyers and law professors interviewed by ABC News expressed the opinion that a prison sentence was probable.
Two individuals suggested that the decision was on the verge of being made, while seven others opined that a prison sentence was unlikely due to challenges in enforcement, the absence of precedent for incarcerating first-time offenders, and the potential political repercussions.
The majority of experts anticipated that Trump’s sentence would be postponed until after the 2024 election or until he successfully appeals, a process which could span several months to a year.
Consequently, it was believed that he would not need to serve any portion of his sentence before this time.
“There is no more serious falsification of business records case that I can remember in the history of supervising and prosecuting many of these cases,” said Karen Friedman Agnifilo, who previously served as the chief assistant district attorney in the Manhattan district attorney’s office.
The United States Sentencing Commission implemented a point system that is commonly employed by judges to guide their sentencing determinations in federal court.
Yet, in the instance of Trump, Judge Merchan has fewer defined parameters. According to New York’s penal law, the maximum imprisonment term for Class-E felonies is four years.
Furthermore, probation officers will compile a report suggesting a sentence for Trump, which Judge Merchan can consider while evaluating the offense’s gravity and taking into account Trump’s individual background and character.
“On behalf of New Yorkers — that’s who Judge Merchan is speaking up for — how big a breach of the social trust was this compared to all the other crimes that he and other judges sentence every day? There is literally no case that has been remotely similar to the criminal prosecution conviction of a former chief executive of the country,” said Justin Levitt, a constitutional law professor at Loyola Law School.
Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg presented a new legal argument in his case, alleging that Trump had falsified business records to hide a violation of a New York election law prohibiting conspiracies to influence an election through unlawful methods.
Several experts interviewed by ABC News expressed doubt that Bragg could effectively justify a prison sentence with the goal of deterring Trump individually from committing similar crimes in the future.
“It’s not necessarily clear to me that this is a situation that will arise again that could be specifically deterred,” said former federal prosecutor Jarrod Schaeffer. “Looking at Trump’s behavior and his track record, I’m not sure that the judge will hold out hope that his sentence in this case will have a strong deterrent effect on him.”
Judge Merchan has the option to sentence Trump to probation or a conditional discharge.
If Trump received probation, he would be required to comply with specific conditions and report to a probation officer.
These conditions might involve travel limitations or curfews, potentially enforced through an ankle monitor, as suggested by former federal prosecutor Michael Zweiback.
However, enforcing these terms during his presidential campaign could present difficulties, according to New York Law School professor Anna Cominsky.
“The more restrictions on someone’s movement sometimes makes it more difficult for them to live their lives and do their jobs,” Cominsky said. “So when it comes to Trump, part of his job is right now campaigning and traveling around the country. He has to be able to do that.”
ABC News reported: “Trump alternatively could be sentenced to a conditional discharge where Judge Merchan himself would oversee that Trump meets the conditions of his release, rather than a probation officer. The conditions of Trump’s release could include paying a fine, performing community service, and avoiding future arrests.”
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2 Comments
The people who should be going to prison are the DAs and judges involved in these bogus charges against Donald Trump. They have only shown that Democrats are out to win the election in any way possible, legal or not!
What do the other nine say? This entire trail appears flawed. How many of the jurors actually voted for a guilty verdict? The judge told them it did not have to be unanimous.