New city-by-city data show violent crime falling across many U.S. cities, with homicides plunging sharply in 2026 and a strong chance the national murder rate could be the lowest since 1900.
After years of rising violence in some places, fresh reporting suggests the trend may be shifting. A Council on Criminal Justice analysis of monthly city data finds sizable declines in many crime categories this year, including a steep drop in homicides.
The council reported homicides down 18% in the first half of 2026 compared with the same stretch in 2025 and down 51% from the 2022 peak, a pattern that “likely [is] pushing the national homicide rate to a new historic low.” Those figures still await FBI confirmation, but they are hard to ignore.
The study tracked 13 crime types across 36 cities that publish consistent monthly data. Nine of those 13 categories were reported less often than in the first half of 2025, and one of the largest single shifts was a 47% drop in carjackings.
Not everything fell; the report notes drug offenses rose 12% and domestic violence climbed 8% in the same period. That mix of movement shows improvement on several fronts while reminding policymakers not to assume every problem is solved.
Looking further back, many categories show deep declines from recent peaks: homicides are 51% below the 2022 high, carjackings are 73% below a 2023 spike, residential burglaries are down 56% since 2018, and vehicle thefts have fallen 51% since 2023.
The council also found violent crimes are less likely to end in death. Among 17 cities with enough detail, the share of violent incidents resulting in homicide dropped 23% versus the first half of 2025 and was 20% lower than the first half of 2019.
City-level results varied, with 21 of 30 cities reporting lower homicide rates in the first half of 2026. Standouts include Lincoln, Nebraska, which reported no homicides during the period for a 100% decrease; Rochester, New York, down 76%; Little Rock, Arkansas, down 61%; Arlington, Texas, down 60%; and Colorado Springs, Colorado, down 53%.
Still, eight cities had increases, reminding us the problem isn’t solved everywhere; Norfolk rose 64%, San Francisco 55%, Dallas 30%, and Salt Lake City 20% all saw higher homicide counts in the window studied. Local results will keep forcing tough local conversations about policing and policy.
Everyone wants to claim credit for falling crime, and national leaders are already staking competing claims. Adam Gelb, president and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice, warned against simple explanations and said:
“Murder and other crime rates are falling across the map, in cities with different political leadership, housing and economic conditions, policing and prosecution strategies, violence reduction models, and levels of federal enforcement activity. Local policies and programs surely matter, but the striking consistency of the decline suggests that macro-level forces are exerting enormous influence as well.”
That statement pushes back on partisan boasting while leaving the door open for multiple contributing causes. Democrats point to social programs and reform-minded approaches, while Republicans argue tougher enforcement, stricter immigration controls, and support for law enforcement played major roles in restoring safety.
President Donald Trump highlighted the drop in a recent address, saying:
“And last year, the murder rate saw its single largest decline in recorded history,” he said. “This is the biggest decline, think of it, in recorded history. The lowest number in over 125 years – year 1900.”
Another angle champions more armed citizens and defensive gun use as a deterrent. Commentators have pointed to millions of annual defensive gun uses as anecdotal evidence that being armed can stop crimes without shots fired.
“Gun control advocates may argue that any link between increased gun carry and fewer violent crimes is purely anecdotal. But there are an awful lot of anecdotes. The number of incidents of ‘defensive gun use’ is estimated to be anywhere between 500,000 and three million times a year. In many cases, no shots were fired, but the mere revelation that the potential crime victim or a bystander was carrying a weapon acted as sufficient deterrence.”
The study sample ranged from cities like Rochester, NY, with about 200,000 residents to New York City with roughly 8.5 million, so these trends span wide population sizes. That breadth strengthens the argument that something larger than local policy may be at work, even if local tactics still matter.
Policy will now follow the data: lawmakers and law-and-order advocates will press for continued enforcement and accountability, while others will push investments and programs aimed at prevention. The numbers give both sides room to argue, but the result is the same for citizens who want safer streets: fewer homicides and fewer violent incidents are the immediate priority.
