As Election Day approaches, a recently leaked memo is causing alarm within the Democratic Party, revealing severe concerns over low voter turnout in critical battleground states. Traditionally strong Democratic urban areas are showing significantly reduced turnout, sparking fears that this could derail Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign and Democratic hopes in close races.
The memo, reportedly from Tim Saler, Chief Data Consultant for the Republican National Committee, outlines a stark turnout gap in key cities across battleground states. According to Saler, Democrats are struggling to mobilize urban voters, a demographic that has historically provided a reliable base for Democratic candidates. The underwhelming turnout in these areas suggests potential challenges for Harris’s campaign, raising questions about the Democrats’ strategy and ability to connect with their core voter base this cycle.
While Democratic campaigns have heavily relied on early voting and absentee ballots in recent elections, the data in the memo shows Republicans outpacing them in these areas. Republican campaigns have also reportedly stepped up their efforts in absentee and early voting, outmatching Democratic outreach in several battleground states. With higher GOP engagement in early voting, the gap could give Republicans a critical edge as Election Day approaches.
The memo paints a concerning picture for Democrats, who now face the challenge of energizing their base in the final stretch of the election. Several factors could be at play, including voter fatigue and dissatisfaction among traditionally Democratic voters. However, the memo raises the alarm that if Democrats cannot close this turnout gap, they risk losing ground in states where they need every vote to secure a win.
Some party insiders argue that the data should be a wake-up call for Democrats to intensify their voter outreach efforts. With polling indicating a tight race, every vote counts in the battleground states. Yet, despite the urgency, turnout among urban Democrats remains worryingly low, leading to speculation about whether the campaign can reignite enthusiasm in time.
If Democrats fail to address this turnout deficit, the memo suggests they could face disappointing results not only for the Harris campaign but also down-ballot races that rely on strong Democratic turnout. As Election Day looms, all eyes are on whether the Democratic Party can overcome this apparent voter crisis and rally enough support to secure their positions in these key states.
According to the confidential memo:
With Early Voting closed and Election Day on the horizon, Democrats are facing a massive turnout deficit. In every single battleground state, we see President Trump and Republicans outperforming elections past in absentee ballots and early votes cast. As we dive deeper into the data, Democrats are facing a precipitous decline in urban turnout according to their own “data experts” and we are tracking an uptick in rural turnout.
Obama’s former campaign manager, Jim Messina, said on MSNBC that “the early vote numbers are a little scary.” What Mr. Messina is downplaying, is they are a lot scarier for Democrats. According to NBC News, President Donald
Trump has a 16-point lead (56-40) among voters who plan to cast their ballot on Election Day. Obama’s chief campaign strategist and CNN political commentator, David Axelrod, told CNN that there are no guarantees that voters will turn out on Election Day for Vice President Harris.
Democrats are spinning themselves and reporters by claiming that their voters will turn out on Election Day when polls show otherwise and, most importantly, that’s asking Democrat voters to do something they have absolutely no history of doing. If Democrats, who historically vote ahead of Election Day, haven’t been motivated to show up for Kamala yet, why do we expect them to show up tomorrow?
President Donald J. Trump is going into Election Day stronger than he has in any previous election and if patriots across the country keep the momentum and turn out as expected on Election Day, we will be swearing in President Trump in January.
But you don’t need to take our word for it. According to Democrat data expert Tom Bonier of TargetSmart:
Arizona:
Urban turnout is down -385,285 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -170,011 votes compared to this point in 2020
Rural turnout is UP +14,124 votes compared to this point in 2020
Georgia:
Urban turnout is down -153,846 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -46,732 votes compared to this point in 2020
Rural turnout is UP +171,837 votes compared to this point in 2020
Michigan:
Urban turnout is down -321,523 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -204,856 votes compared to this point in 2020
Rural turnout is UP +55,951 votes compared to this point in 2020
North Carolina:
Urban turnout is down -175,470 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -154,459 votes compared to this point in 2020
Rural turnout is UP +26,911 votes compared to this point in 2020
Nevada:
Urban turnout is down -191,199 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -126,112 votes compared to this point in 2020
Pennsylvania:
Urban turnout is down -381,519 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -450,802 votes compared to this point in 2020
Wisconsin:
Urban turnout is down -100,733 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -238,452 votes compared to this point in 2020
BREAKING: New memo confirms that Democrats are facing a huge turnout issue in the battlegrounds.
PA: Urban turnout is down 381K votes, female turnout is down 450K votes.
BREAKING: New memo confirms that Democrats are facing a huge turnout issue in the battlegrounds.
PA: Urban turnout is down 381K votes, female turnout is down 450K votes.
WI: Urban down 100K, female down 238K. pic.twitter.com/azDBWGHSx4
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 4, 2024
